Solar potential is still vastly underestimated
Two recent studies have each shown that many scenarios assessing global decarbonization pathways still under-predict future PV production, while the LCOE of solar technology is over-estimated. The researchers analyzed researchers, governments, including the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the European Commission, the Government of India, the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). Scenarios envisioned by agencies and NGOs.
At present, the different scenarios given by a number of important agencies, including the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), still considerably underestimate the potential of solar photovoltaics as a major decarbonization driver of the world's energy mix. In two studies published this week, scientists at Aarhus University in Denmark and researchers at the German Aerospace Center (DLR) came to this conclusion. In a study published in Joule, Aarhus University Professor Marta Victoria and other scientists from universities and knowledge institutions in the US, Europe and Japan illustrate how the IPCC's 2050 Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) can The photovoltaic industry has been underestimated over the past 14 years, confirming previous findings by scientists at the University of Geneva in Switzerland. "Our paper draws similar conclusions to [Marc] Jaxa-Rozen and [Evelina] Trutnevyte's paper," Victoria told pv magazine, "but we focus more on explaining the reasons behind, which means the model has limitations. ."
In particular, the researchers analysed a comprehensive assessment model and a partial equilibrium model used by IPCC experts and found that the estimated levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for photovoltaic technology was set too high. "Since 1976, solar PV modules have maintained a learning rate of 23%, i.e. every time the [manufactured] capacity is doubled, its cost is reduced by 23%," the paper states.
“All models used by the IPCC in its report assume that electricity costs fall to at least €1 per watt of installed capacity by 2050. Today’s average cost is already below that. In other words, we Thirty years earlier than previously assumed." Victoria said, "IPCC emphasizes other energy sources and technologies and underestimates the contribution of solar cells." She believes that the international body should recognize the major role of photovoltaic technology in the global energy transition. In another paper published in Energy Strategy Reviews, researchers from the German Aerospace Center compared the cost assumptions of solar and wind technologies in global, regional and national energy scenario studies by different institutions with renewable energy Industry-reported costs are compared. "Our results suggest that trends in rapidly falling costs are structurally underestimated in nearly all analyses of future energy scenarios - even the latest studies cite outdated or very conservative citations," said the study authors. value."
The German research team selected scenarios published after 2015, including long-term scenarios of the energy system (including the installed capacity structure of power stations), and provided cost estimates for capital expenditure and LCOE. In their paper, they specify that "there were six regional or national studies covering the United States, China, [EU], India, Brazil and South Africa, while the rest were ... on a global scale." The studies were conducted by the researchers , government agencies or NGOs including the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), European Commission, Government of India, International Energy Agency (IEA) and International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), among others.
The paper notes that only one hypothetical 2050 solar LCOE in the selected studies is below the price levels auctioned today. "In other words, the 2050 PV cost figures used by planning agencies are no longer valid even for today's market," the authors stress.
They explain that the economic potential of solar and renewable energy has been largely underestimated. By contrast, the cost of energy transition and emissions reductions has been overestimated. "Researchers should also update assumptions about economic longevity, hours at full load, system degradation, and operating and maintenance costs," the German team concluded.
